Y\u00fcksek olas\u0131l\u0131kla m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmayan\u0131n etkisini g\u00f6zlemleyebilece\u011fimiz, m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclen ama b\u00fcy\u00fck sonu\u00e7lara yol a\u00e7an yorumu yap\u0131lan bir kitap hakk\u0131nda ne d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcrs\u00fcn\u00fcz? \u0130statistik, olas\u0131l\u0131k ve bunlar\u0131n yanl\u0131\u015f kullan\u0131m\u0131 konu alan Siyah Ku\u011fu adl\u0131 kitap Nassim Nicholas Taleb taraf\u0131ndan yaz\u0131lan ve i\u00e7inden pek \u00e7ok ders \u00e7\u0131karabilece\u011fimiz bir kitapt\u0131r. \u0130\u015fte bu derslerden baz\u0131lar\u0131:<\/p>\n
\u0130lk olarak: Siyah ku\u011fular, onlar\u0131 fark\u0131nda olmayanlar\u0131n ger\u00e7ekliklerini de\u011fi\u015ftirir. 1697’ye kadar insanlar t\u00fcm ku\u011fular\u0131n beyaz oldu\u011funu sanm\u0131\u015flar ancak siyah ku\u011fular g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde ise ‘siyah ku\u011fu’ terimini g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fc\u015fte imkans\u0131z olan durumlar\u0131n ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 olarak kullan\u0131lmaya ba\u015flanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Kitab\u0131m\u0131za g\u00f6re siyah ku\u011funun geldi\u011fini fark etmeyenler ya da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmeyenler, durumdan en zararl\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kacak olanlard\u0131r. Baz\u0131 durumlarda kitleleri etkilerken, bazen sadece tek ki\u015fi bu durumdan k\u00f6t\u00fc olarak etkilenebilir. Bir di\u011fer ders: Gelece\u011fi tahmin etmek i\u00e7in ge\u00e7mi\u015fi kullanmay\u0131n. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fte ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z dersler ve ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z durumlar\u0131 \u00f6rnek g\u00f6stererek gelece\u011fin de b\u00f6yle olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcr\u00fcz ama bu durumlar\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirecek pek \u00e7ok bilinmeyen fakt\u00f6r vard\u0131r. Son ders ise: Ger\u00e7ek d\u00fcnya risklerini oyun gibi de\u011ferlendirmek sizin yanl\u0131\u015f se\u00e7imler yapman\u0131za neden olabilir. \u0130htimaller ve belli kurallar\u0131 olan oyunlar ve normalde kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z g\u00f6revler birbirinden farkl\u0131d\u0131r. \u0130htimaller her zaman i\u015finizin i\u00e7inde olacakt\u0131r ve oyunlar\u0131n aksine ger\u00e7ek d\u00fcnyada ihtimaller de\u011fi\u015fecektir.<\/p>\n
What do you think about a book that we can observe the effect of the unlikely possibility, which is thought to be impossible, but is interpreted with great results? The book titled Black Swan, which is about statistics, probability, and misuse is a book written by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, from which we can learn many lessons. Here are some of these lessons:<\/p>\n
First: Black swans change the reality of those who are not aware of them. By 1697, people thought that all swans were white, but when black swans were seen, the term ‘black swan’ was used as the emergence of seemingly impossible situations. According to our book, those who do not realize or think that black swan is coming are the most harmful ones. While in some cases it affects the masses, sometimes only one person can be badly affected. Another lesson: Don’t use the past to predict the future. We think that the future will be the same by showing the lessons we learned and the situations we experienced in the past, but many unknown factors will change these situations. The last lesson: Evaluating real-world risks like a game can lead you to make wrong choices. The possibilities and games with certain rules and the tasks we normally encounter are different from each other. The possibilities will always be in your work and unlike the games, the possibilities will change in the real world.<\/p>\n